Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

Authors
Dangerfield, BC Fang, YX Roberts, CA
Citation
Bc. Dangerfield et al., Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy, SYST DYNAM, 17(2), 2001, pp. 119-150
Citations number
32
Categorie Soggetti
Management
Journal title
SYSTEM DYNAMICS REVIEW
ISSN journal
08837066 → ACNP
Volume
17
Issue
2
Year of publication
2001
Pages
119 - 150
Database
ISI
SICI code
0883-7066(200122)17:2<119:MSFTEO>2.0.ZU;2-H
Abstract
A system dynamics model of HIV/AIDS epidemiology is employed to simulate th e effects of triple combination antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of HIV/AIDS. The epidemic data on homosexual men in the UK (1981-1998) have be en used to fit the baseline model. The new combination therapies, which sup planted antiviral mono and dual therapy in 1996, are proving to be the most effective prophylaxis yet for halting viral replication in vivo, but many uncertainties still surround their use. A range of model-generated scenario s are created as a means of considering these uncertainties. Possible futur es for the HIV/AIDS epidemic are constructed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.