POTENTIAL AND ATTAINABLE FOOD-PRODUCTION AND FOOD SECURITY IN DIFFERENT REGIONS

Growing prosperity in the South is accompanied by human diets that wil l claim more natural resources per capita. This reality, combined with growing populations, may raise the global demand for food crops two- to four-fold within two generations. Considering the large volume of n atural resources and potential crop yields, it seems that this demand can be met smoothly. However, this is a fallacy for the following reas ons. (i) Geographic regions differ widely in their potential food secu rity: policy choices for agricultural use of natural resources are lim ited in Asia. For example, to ensure national self sufficiency and foo d security, most of the suitable land (China) and nearly all of the su rface water (India) are needed. Degradation restricts options further. (ii) The attainable level of agricultural production depends also on socio-economic conditions. Extensive poverty keeps the attainable food production too low to achieve food security, even when the yield gap is wide, as in Africa. (iii) Bio-energy, non-food crops and nature 'co mpete' with food crops for natural resources. Global and regional food security are attainable, but only with major efforts. Strategies to a chieve alternative aims will be discussed.