Norwegian gas sales and the impacts on European CO2 emissions

This paper has studied the impacts on Western European CO2 emissions of a r eduction in Norwegian gas sales. Such impacts are due to changes in energy demand, energy supply, and environmental and political regulations. The gas supply model DYNOPOLY was used to analyse the effects on Russian and Alger ian gas exports of a reduction in Norwegian gas supply. The effects on the demand side and the effects of committing to CO2 targets were analysed usin g the energy demand model SEEM. If Western European countries commit to the ir announced CO2 emissions targets, reduced Norwegian gas sales will have n o impact on emissions. The consumption of oil and coal will increase slight ly, while the total energy consumption will go down. Also, a reduction in N orwegian gas sales will have only minor impacts on the CO2 emissions from W estern Europe when no emissions regulations are considered. (C) 2001 Elsevi er Science B.V. All rights reserved.