Importance of predictive microbiology for risk minimization in food production processes - 1. Model development, application software, model validation

Efforts to develop Predictive Microbiology (PM), a rather recent discipline of food hygiene, are made in England (ROBERTS, BARANYI, et al.), the USA ( BUCHANAN, WHITING, et al.) and Australia (MCMEEKIN, et al.) since about 15 years. From inoculation experiments in laboratory media, PM derives equatio ns to describe quantitatively in the behaviour of microorganisms in foods i n dependence of intrinsic and extrinsic factors (controlling factors). Mean while, numerous growth, survival and thermal inactivation (death) model hav e been elaborated for the most important foodborne pathogens. The Food Micr oModel and the Pathogen Modeling Program are available as user friendly app lication software. Although all PM models are simplifications of the biolog ical mechanisms and the presently available models still have their limitat ions, comparisons with independent data from literature indicate that predi ctions of most models are in the worst case fail-safe and their systematic errors do not exceed those of inoculated pack experiments. Once a model has been validated for a type of food, it can be applied at all stages of food production and distribution. PM models are already used to conduct HACCP s tudies and are powerful tools for microbiological risk assessment, in parti cular.