Tracking of blood pressure in Australian children

Objective Tracking of blood pressure (BP) from childhood occurs in populati ons but, for individuals, prediction of adult BP from childhood levels is p oor. We examined factors that may influence tracking of BP to identify bett er predictors of higher BP in early adult life. Design A prospective study of children recruited at the age of 9 years by r andom sampling of Perth metropolitan schools stratified by socio-economic s tatus. Setting Community based with re-surveys 3-yearly for 9 years. Participants A total of 516 boys and 520 girls at 9 years; 680 boys and 630 girls at 12 years; 318 boys and 300 girls at 15 years; 330 men and 326 wom en at 18 years. Main outcome measures Systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) BP , Results Persistence in the highest quartile for SEP between surveys was see n in 34-48% of subjects and in 37% between the ages of 9 and 18 years. The proportion increased to around 60% in those in the highest quartile for bod y mass index (BMI), to 70% in those in the highest quartile for change in B MI and to 60% if there was a family history of hypertension, In log-linear models, persistence in a quartile for SEP was significantly related to a fa mily history of hypertension, previous SEP, BMI and change in BMI. Relation ships were similar for DBP, Conclusions Excessive weight gain in adolescence and a family history of hy pertension substantially increase the risk of higher BP persisting into ear ly adult life. Recognition of children at risk would allow early interventi on emphasizing weight control with potential long-term benefits. (C) 2001 L ippincott Williams & Wilkins.