An eastern wild turkey population dynamics model for Virginia and West Virginia

Hunting can have potentially significant impacts on wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) populations. We developed a 2-sex Leslie-type matrix model that predicts wild turkey population size for spring-summer and fall-winter peri ods to understand the effects of hunting on the dynamics of wild turkey pop ulations in Virginia and West Virginia. A base model incorporates parameter s derived from a large-scale radiotelemetry study (n = 1,543 hens radiotagg ed) conducted over areas with different fall hunting seasons in Virginia an d West Virginia fi om 1989 to 1994. These data made it possible to, evaluat e the effects of season length, season timing, and 1- versus 2-sex kills on population growth and future harvests. A sensitivity analysis confirmed th at fall hunting has the strongest negative effect on the population growth rate. For the range of parameters explored, population growth I ate appeare d to decrease linearly with increases in fall hunting. Also, the proportion of males in the population was more sensitive to fall rather than spring h unting. These results were invariant to a wide variety of different model c alibrations.