This study sought to more fully explicate the key variables involved in Noe
lle-Neumann's spiral of silence theory, which states that fear of isolation
keeps individuals front expressing opinions perceived to be in the minorit
y. We tested the theory in the context of public discussion about affirmati
ve action policies, a domain seemingly ideal die to its moral and value-lad
en characteristics. Data from 217 randomly selected adults in October 1998
indicate that fear of isolation indeed prevents one from publicly voicing p
erceived minority opinions. Willingness to speak out on a controversial bal
lot initiative was predicted also by demographics, media use, and importanc
e of the issue. However, it was perceived consonance of one's opinion with
family and friends - rather than society at large - that predicted willingn
ess to speak out.