The spiral of silence and public opinion on affirmative action

This study sought to more fully explicate the key variables involved in Noe lle-Neumann's spiral of silence theory, which states that fear of isolation keeps individuals front expressing opinions perceived to be in the minorit y. We tested the theory in the context of public discussion about affirmati ve action policies, a domain seemingly ideal die to its moral and value-lad en characteristics. Data from 217 randomly selected adults in October 1998 indicate that fear of isolation indeed prevents one from publicly voicing p erceived minority opinions. Willingness to speak out on a controversial bal lot initiative was predicted also by demographics, media use, and importanc e of the issue. However, it was perceived consonance of one's opinion with family and friends - rather than society at large - that predicted willingn ess to speak out.