Predictors of smoking reduction and cessation in a cohort of Danish moderate and heavy smokers

Background. The aim of this study was to examine the extent and gender dist ribution of unassisted tobacco reduction and cessation in a cohort of moder ate and heavy smokers and to identify possible predictor variables associat ed with these changes in smoking behavior. Methods. This was a prospective population study of 3,791 moderate and heav y smokers, 15 g tobacco/day or more, who were enrolled in the Copenhagen Ci ty Heart Study in 1976-1978 and attended a reexamination 5 years later. Dat a on smoking behavior were collected at baseline and follow-up. Smoking red uction was defined as a decrease in mean daily tobacco consumption of 10 g or more. Using multivariate logistic regression, subjects who reported redu ced smoking or who reported smoking cessation were compared with subjects w ho continued the habit unchanged. Results. After 5 years 13% of the men and 9% of the women had reduced their tobacco consumption, and 9 and 7%, respectively, had quit altogether. Smok ing reduction was strongly associated with high tobacco consumption (25+ g/ day) at baseline and also with severely impaired lung function (FEV1 < 50% predicted) and overweight (BMI > 25). Predictors of smoking cessation inclu ded impaired lung function and a tobacco consumption of 15-24 g/day. Additi onal determinants of smoking reduction and cessation such as inhalation hab its and sociodemographic variables differed by gender. Conclusions. Several predictors of smoking reduction and cessation were ide ntified, indicating that these subgroups of smokers differ substantially fr om continuing smokers. This should be taken into account when assessing pot ential health benefits from these changes in smoking behavior (C) 2001 Amer ican Health Foundation and Academic Press.