Behavioural factors as predictors of motor vehicle crashes: differentials between young urban and rural drivers

Objective: To describe the driver and behavioural factors that predispose y oung drivers to crash in the first 12 months of driving and to compare whet her these factors differ between young urban and rural drivers. Methods: A cohort comprising 1796 newly licensed urban and rural drivers fr om Western Australia was recruited and followed over the first 12 months of driving. Using Cox proportional hazard analysis, driver and behavioural fa ctors were assessed to determine whether they predicted the likelihood of a crash. Results: The incidence rate for a motor vehicle crash was marginally higher for urban drivers compared with rural drivers (Urban: IR=4.2/10,000 drivin g days; Rural: IR=3.7/10,000 driving days). There was no significant differ ence in the time to crash between urban and rural drivers. Two factors, nam ely the frequency of driving before obtaining a learner-driver permit and t he driver's level of risk taking, were significantly associated with a moto r vehicle crash in the first year of driving. Conclusion: Irrespective of whether the driver is licensed in a rural or ur ban area, high risk-taking drivers are at an elevated risk of a motor vehic le crash in the first 12 months df driving. Implications: Aspects of Graduated Driver Training and Licensing Programs ( GDTLP) could be effective h targeting this at-risk group.