We examined the creep properties and hazard rates of plastic ferrules to en
sure the long-term reliablity of optical fiber connections. The endface def
ormation DeltaL had to be smaller than 3 mum to keep the insertion-loss and
return-loss fluctuation to acceptable levels in the worst case of random c
oncatenation of similarly deformed plastic ferrules. From the fluctuation d
ata, we estimated the time-to-failure t(f) at which the DeltaL value became
3 mum. We estimated the acceleration parameters, median lifetimes E, and h
azard rates lambda by using t(f) values based on Weibull statistics. The xi
values decreased rapidly with increasing temperature and relative humidity
. We found we could expect small lambda values of < 0.1 FIT (FIT=10(-9)/hou
r) and of 1 FIT for 20 years in a normal atmosphere (25 degreesC/50%RH) and
in a more severe case of 25 degreesC/90%RH, respectively.