Integrated assessment and multicriteria analysis

The result presented in this paper is the format construction of a frame al gorithm for an integrated assessment rather than its application and corres ponding detailed calculations which are underway (research project GLOWA-El be: Global Change of the Water Cycle). It is assumed that the research goal s can be represented and achieved by a collection of optimization tasks - t he so-called masterscenarios which are specific applications of the constru cted algorithm. The objects of investigation of the scenarios are sub-regio ns of a river drainage basin, e.g,, the Elbe river basin, forming complex l andscape units which are defined by their mutually dependent environmental, economic and social states or parameters. Possible masterscenario tasks ar e qualitative and realistic target states for the landscape units which can be met by management in different ways and on different quantitative level s. First of all, the scope of fields and potentials for activities have to be explored. In another step, states and aggregated indicators are defined which reflect these qualities and quantity levels and, in this way, allow c omparisons and the definition of criteria for evaluation. Evolution process es which affect the river basin but cannot be managed endogenously may be d riven exogenously by anticipated climate change and by demographic, economi c, social or technological developments. The algorithm focuses the availabl e information on a sequence of three computer-aided analyses: Impact Analys is (IA), Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) and Equity Analysis (EA). IA is reali zed by offline studies with the help of numerous partial expert models; EA is intended to organize compromises between concerned interest groups. MCA produces a ranking of all possible alternative solutions using a set of cri teria. IA has to produce partial evaluations of all alternatives with respe ct to all selected criteria. The ranking of alternatives may be used to sup port planning procedures and decisions. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.