Towards integrated assessment of the implications of global change for water management - The Rhine experience

The rivers Rhine and Meuse fulfil important socio-economic and environmenta l functions for their riparian states. Even under present-day conditions, t he demands for flood protection, inland navigation, ecology, hydropower, wa ter availability for agriculture, industry and drinking water are high. Cli mate change is expected to enhance discrepancies between water supply and d emand in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This issue has been investigated in a sequence of climate-impact studies in the Rhine and Meuse basins. These stu dies firstly focused at hydrological changes. Subsequently, a detailed impa ct assessment of the demands and vulnerability of the user functions of the water systems in the Netherlands was carried out. In an ongoing project we will establish a set of integrated scenarios for the Rhine and Meuse basin s, representing different world-views, based on the so-called Perspectives method. Using these scenarios we attempt to define water management strateg ies that are robust under uncertainty. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All r ights reserved.