Application of a Bayesian approach for estimation of seismic hazard parameters in some regions of the circum-Pacific belt

The maximum possible (regional) magnitude M-max and other seismic hazard pa rameters like beta which is the slope of Gutenberg-Richter law, and L which is the intensity (rate) of seismic activity are estimated in eight seismic regions of the west side of the circum-Pacific belt. The Bayesian approach , as described by (PISARENKO el al., 1996; PISARENKO and LYUBUSHIN, 1997, 1 999) is a straightforward technique of estimating the seismic hazard. The m ain assumptions for the method applied are a Poissonian character of seismi c events flow, a frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg-Richter's type with c utoff maximum value for the: estimated parameter and a seismic catalog, whi ch have a rather sizeable number of events. We also estimated the quantiles of the probabilistic distribution of the "apparent" M-max for future given time-length intervals.