Linking population-level risk assessment with landscape and habitat models

Ecological risk assessment at the population level often involves predictin g the effects of a particular change in the land-use patterns on the viabil ity of native species. A common method of addressing such questions is mode ling the metapopulation dynamics of the species in the landscape. However, the landscape and, as a result, the spatial structure of the metapopulation usually do not remain unchanged, thus the assessment of viability must inc orporate the dynamic nature of the landscape. A new link being developed be tween a metapopulation modeling program (RAMAS) and a landscape dynamics pr ogram (LANDIS) will allow the transitional dynamics of the landscape to be incorporated into assessment of viability and threat. This approach combine s methods of landscape prediction with those of metapopulation simulation. The link between the landscape model and metapopulation model is provided b y statistical models of habitat suitability for the species in focus. (C) 2 001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.