Deforestation methods in southwestern Campeche (Mexico)

The analysis of satellite images shows an important reduction of forest cov er in the Lagoon of Terminos region in the State of Campeche (southeastern Mexico) over the last decades. Deforestation rates reached 2.2 and 5.3%, re spectively, on a yearly basis during 1974-1986 and 1986-1991. The deforesta tion process was modelled using a geographic information system. The model allows to determine how elements such as roads or human settlements proximi ty, land tenure, shape of the forest patches, slope, soil type, and human p opulation attributes have an impact on the deforestation process. Deforesta tion was more severe in opened, nonflooded areas, with fertile soil, near r oads and human settlements. Human population attributes showed little influ ence on deforestation rates, probably because pasture lands encroachment wa s recognized as the main cause of forest clearing. However, the model does not highlight the root causes of this phenomena, such as government policy on settlement and subsidies for cattle ranching. Despite this limitation, i t allows to generate deforestation risk assessment maps that correctly iden tify the forest areas most susceptible to deforestation.