Optimisation analysis and integrated models of the enhanced greenhouse effect

The issues surrounding the anticipated impacts of the enhanced greenhouse e ffect are likely to form a significant part of the research activities in t he coming years. In this paper we have adopted a control theoretic approach to the analysis of one of the world`s best known "integrated" models of th e enhanced greenhouse effect: the Dutch IMAGE 1.0 (Integrated Model to Asse ss the Greenhouse Effect) model. The paper demonstrates that optimisation m ethodologies can be applied to inregrated models to enhance their interpret ative power, This is accomplished by providing a mechanism whereby optimal emission allocation strategies can be formulated from existing models. One result of particular interest is that the analysis confirms that the earlie r human input into the climate system can be stabilised. the higher the lev els of CO2 emissions can he permitted and still achieve specific long-term environmental target.