Distributed process modeling for regional assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise involves increases in the coastal processes of inundation an d erosion which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environment al parameters at the coast. Many assessments of coastal vulnerability to se a-level rise have been derailed and localised in extent, There is a need fo r regional assessment techniques which identify areas vulnerable, sea-level rise. Four physical environmental parameters-elevation, exposure. aspect a nd slope. are modeled on a regional scale for the Northern Spencer Gulf (NS G) study area using commonly available low-resolution elevation data of 10 m contour interval and GIS-based spatial modeling techniques. Fur compariso n, the same parameters are modeled on a line-scale for the False Bay area w ithin the NSG using high-resolution elevation data. Physical environmental parameters on the two scales are statistically compared to coastal vulnerab ility classes as identified by Harvey et al. [1] using the Spearman rank-co rrelation test and stepwise linear regression. Coastal vulnerability is str ongly correlated with elevation and exposure at both scales and this relati onship is only slightly stronger for the high resolution False Bay data. Th e results of this study suggest that regional scale distributed coastal pro cess modeling may be suitable as a "first cut" in assessing coastal vulnera bility to sea-level rise in ride-dominated. sedimentary coastal regions. Di stributed coastal process modeling provides a suitable basis for the assess ment of coastal vulnerablity to sea-level rise of sufficient accuracy for o n-ground management and priority-salting on a regional scale.