ADOLESCENT RISK-FACTORS AND THE PREDICTION OF PERSISTENT ALCOHOL AND DRUG-USE INTO ADULTHOOD

Adolescence is a time of heightened risk for relatively intensive alco hol and other drug use behaviors. However, heavy use is often ''adoles cence-limited,'' giving way to moderation or cessation in adulthood, W e examined individual differences in risk factors at age 18 that were predictive of alternative alcohol and drug use trajectories from adole scence to adulthood. Data were collected prospectively an four occasio ns from participants in the Rutgers Health and Human Development Proje ct. Subsets of individuals representing three prototypical trajectorie s of (1) consistently low alcohol and drug use during adolescence and early adulthood; (2) heavier alcohol or drug use during adolescence, b ut not during adulthood; and (3) persistent heavier alcohol or drug us e from adolescence into adulthood were found to differ significantly o n a number of intrapersonal, behavioral, and environmental risk, facto rs, with the adolescence-limited group consistently scoring between th e other two groups. Based on these results, a composite risk index was constructed. In the total sample, however, when the effect of alcohol and drug use behaviors at age ?a was controlled, the composite risk i ndex was unrelated to adult (age 28 to 31) levels of alcohol and drug use and consequences, Thus, its this community sample, well-documented risk factors assessed in adolescence did not exhibit any direct, Long term effects on use intensity and problems in adulthood, It is conclud ed that the assessed risk :actors (disinhibition, cognitive structure, pity, deviant coping, friends' deviance, and stressful life events) a re not immutable, but subject to individual and normative changes duri ng the transition from adolescence to adulthood. More research is need ed to determine the long-term stability of risk factors, and how chang es in risk factors over time, discontinuities in what constitutes risk in adolescence versus adulthood, and proximal adult protective factor s that compensate for early risk contribute to developmental patterns of use.