COHORT AND PERIOD EFFECTS IN US MIGRATION - HOW DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC CYCLES INFLUENCE THE MIGRATION SCHEDULE

This paper examines the influence of demographic and economic cycles o n the migration propensities given in the migration age schedule. It i s well known that while the shape or profile of the migration-age rela tionship has enduring regularity over time and space, its level (or in tensity) shows considerable volatility. Recent studies suggest that va riations in generation size and economic conditions may systematically influence the levels of the migration schedule. These studies show th at large cohorts have notably lower migration rates than small cohorts , mainly because they face more competitive labor markets upon entry i nto young adulthood. Similarly, migration rates, especially of young a dults, have been found to decline during recessionary periods and incr ease during economic booms. Building on these studies, I examine the i nfluence of generation size on the migration intensities seen in a coh ort (longitudinal) migration schedule and that of economic conditions on the intensities of a period (cross-sectional) migration schedule. I further specify a model that incorporates both cohort and period effe cts in order to understand their relative importance in shaping the mi gration schedule. Empirical analyses based on Current Population Surve y data far the 1949-1993 period reveal that the level of the migration schedule is sensitive to demographic and economic cycles, with the ef fect of generation size being relatively more influential. The finding s call for a more explicit incorporation of cohort and period effects in analyses of migration patterns.