SERUM-ELASTIN-PEPTIDES AS A PREDICTOR OF EXPANSION OF SMALL ABDOMINALAORTIC-ANEURYSMS

Objective: To optimise the indication and time for operation for abdom inal aortic aneurysm (AAA), we analysed whether or not serum-elastin-p eptides (SEP) could be a potential predictor for expansion. Materials and methods: Four thousand, four hundred and four 65-73-year-old males were invited for screening to detect on AAA. Three thousand, three hu ndred and thirty-four attended (76%). One hundred and forty-one had AA A, and 19>5 cm in diameter were referred for immediate operation. The remaining 122 AAA were offered an annual follow-up. Ninety-nine were l ater asked for a blood-sample, 83 attended. SEP was determined using a n ELISA-technique. The observer was blinded to the SEP result. Results : The average expansion was 2.6 mm/year, and 10 (8.1%) were referred f or operation because of a diameter of >5 cm. SEP were positively corre lated to expansion (R=0.4, F=14.65). In multiple regression analyses, AAA size, SEP, beta-agonist-treatment, and FEV1, but not beta-blockers , were predictors of expansion. SEP remained a relatively strong predi ctor (F=13.13). Conclusions: Serum-elastin-peptides seem to predict ex pansion, but a larger, longer study is needed to establish clinical re commendations.