ESTIMATING CHILDHOOD MORTALITY TRENDS FROM ROUTINE DATA - A SIMULATION USING THE PRECEDING BIRTH TECHNIQUE IN BANGLADESH

The Preceding Birth Technique (PET) has been proposed as a method suit able for ascertaining the prevailing level of under-2 mortality in cou ntries without full vital registration. It is a monitoring tool rather than a method that will replace other established approaches to measu ring childhood mortality levels and differentials that other demograph ers have developed over the last 30 years. The principle obstacle to t he wider adoption of the PET is the low proportion of women who give b irth in maternity clinics and hospitals. A larger proportion of mother s, however visit clinics and hospitals for antenatal care and to vacci nate their newborn. We used data from the Matlab surveillance system t o test the accuracy of mortality estimates derived using the PET with data obtained from mothers at antenatal visits and at the vaccination of their youngest children. The study shows that the PET estimates und er-3 rather than under-2 mortality in Bangladesh due to the long birth intervals. The data, when used to simulate the collection of the info rmation at antenatal or postnatal visits, nonetheless provide an accur ate description of under-3 mortality trends and differences for the tw o periods examined-before 1984 and before 1989.