CRUDE-OIL AND ALTERNATE ENERGY-PRODUCTION FORECASTS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY - THE END OF THE HYDROCARBON ERA

Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the conti nuous flow of energy required by the world's increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing dema nd until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by de clining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding p roduction of coal, natural gas, unconventional oil from tar sands, hea vy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable convent ional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil p roduction is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaust ion by 2100.