Tardive dyskinesia (TD) has been associated with female gender, affect
ive symptoms and good outcome, but also with negative symptoms, cognit
ive deterioration and deteriorating illness course. Furthermore, antip
sychotic medication is thought to be an important risk factor, yet abn
ormal movements also occur in patients who have never received such me
dication. We followed 166 subjects with recent onset of psychotic illn
ess and brief previous exposure to antipsychotic medication. Informati
on on 17 previously reported risk factors was available for 125 patien
ts at baseline and, for factors that vary over time, again at follow-u
p 4 years later (median, 50 months; interquartile range, 29-70). Movem
ent disorder was assessed at follow-up using the Abnormal Involuntary
Movement Scale (AIMS). Six non-interacting variables were independentl
y associated with the 4-year risk of TD: male sex (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.
1-5.0), age (OR over quartiles at baseline, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.2), lac
k of insight at baseline (OR over four categories, 2.0: 95% CI, 1.2-3.
2), time on antipsychotics during the follow-up period (OR over quarti
les, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.5-3.4), an increase in negative symptoms during th
e follow-up period (OR over quartiles, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.5), and alco
hol/drug misuse at follow-up (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.3-7.4). The presence
of individual risk factors was found to be of little use as a screenin
g test for subsequent clinically relevant TD. Given the absence of a r
isk factor, however, the probability that an individual would not deve
lop TD was high. These results suggest that two discrete effects may o
perate to increase the risk of TD, namely an exogenous factor (medicat
ion, drugs), and an illness-related factor, the highest risk being con
ferred by deteriorating illness course in male patients.