THROUGH A NARROW WINDOW - SAMPLE-SIZE AND THE PERCEPTION OF CORRELATION

A theoretical analysis (Y. Kareev, 1995b) of the sampling distribution of correlations led to the surprising conclusion that the use of smal l samples has a potential advantage for the early detection of a corre lation. This is so because the distribution is highly skewed, and the smaller the sample size, the more the distribution is skewed. This art icle describes 2 experiments that were designed as empirical tests of this conclusion. In Experiment 1 (N = 112), the authors compared the p redictions of participants differing in their working-memory capacity (hence in the size of the samples they were likely to consider). In Ex periment 2 (N = 144), the authors compared the predictions of particip ants who viewed samples of different sizes, whose size was determined by the authors. The results fully supported Y. Kareev's conclusion: In both experiments, participants with lower capacity (or smaller sample s) indeed perceived the correlation as more extreme and were more accu rate in their predictions.