ON THE IMPACT OF FUTURE LAND-USE ASSUMPTIONS ON RISK ANALYSIS FOR SUPERFUND SITES

In this paper, assumptions regarding future land use as a key uncertai nty is considered and its impact on risk analysis for contaminated sit es is assessed. Risks are assessed for two land use scenarios (current -use industrial and future-use residential) using probabilistic models that incorporate uncertainty and variability in the exposure paramete rs. Residual risks are calculated for both industrial and residential cleanup standards. A Superfund site in northern California is consider ed. In general, for the unremediated case, the future-use residential scenarios produce larger risks (I to 3 orders of magnitude) than curre nt-(continued) use industrial scenarios. For the Superfund site studie d, the residual risks calculated for the remedy selected was not suffi ciently protective of future-use residents in that it did not meet U.S . Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk goals, but was protective of current-use workers, even though the cleanup criteria were based o n residential use. Alternative risk management practices, such as deed restrictions, can be used in such cases.