A. Alponat et al., PREDICTIVE FACTORS FOR SYNCHRONOUS COMMON BILE-DUCT STONES IN PATIENTS WITH CHOLELITHIASIS, Surgical endoscopy, 11(9), 1997, pp. 928-932
Background: To determine the predictive factors of synchronous common
bile duct (CBD) stones, data from 878 consecutive patients who underwe
nt cholecystectomy in a university clinic from June 1991 to June 1996
were retrospectively analyzed. Methods: Based on clinical, biochemical
, and ultrasonographic criteria, 194 patients were selected for ERCP,
180 preoperative and 14 postoperative. Results: Cannulation of CBD was
successful in 192 (99%) patients. Stones were identified in 62 (32%)
patients and sphincterotomy was performed in 56 (90%). Duct clearance
was achieved in 43 (77%) cases. There was a high predictive value for
the presense of CBD stones in patients with cholangitis, present jaund
ice, and dilated CBD with evidence of stones on ultrasound (75%, 72%,
and 67% respectively). A dilated CBD without stone on ultrasound and e
levated liver enzymes had less than 40% positive predictive value. His
tory of previous jaundice, pancreatitis, previously raised liver enzym
es, and present pancreatitis was predictive in less than 20% of the ca
ses. Univariate analyses revealed that clinical findings of cholangiti
s and obstructive jaundice, elevated liver enzymes (previous and prese
nt), and ultrasonographic findings of stones in a dilated CBD were sig
nificant positive predictors. Subanalysis of each elevated liver enzym
e revealed that alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, alkaline
phosphatase, and gamma glutamyl transpeptidase were significant predi
ctors. Both elevated conjugated and total bilirubins were also signifi
cant predictors for CBD stones. Conclusion: Multivariate logistic regr
ession analysis on these significant predictors showed that cholangiti
s (odds ratio [OR]: 10.5), dilated CBD with evidence of stones on ultr
asound (OR: 7.4), elevated aspartate transaminase (OR: 2.9), and conju
gated bilirubin (OR: 5.3) were jointly significant. The likelihood of
having stones in the duct without any of these predictors was 7%, but
99% when all the predictors were positive.