INNOVATION FORECASTING

Technological forecasting is premised on a certain orderliness of the innovation process. Myriad studies of technological substitution, diff usion, and transfer processes have yielded conceptual models of what m atters for successful innovation, but most technological forecasts key on limited empirical measures quite divorced from those innovation pr ocess models. We glean a number of concepts from various innovation mo dels, then present an array of bibliometric measures that offer the pr omise of operationalizing these concepts. Judicious combination of suc h bibliometrics with other forms of evidence offers an enriched form o f technological forecasting we call ''innovation forecasting.'' This p rovides a good means to combine technological trends, mapping of techn ological interdependencies, and competitive intelligence to produce a viable forcast. We illustrate by assessing prospects for ceramic engin e technologies. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.