SURROGATE DATA TO ESTIMATE CROP-HAIL LOSS

Crop-hail insurance loss data for 1948-94 are useful as measures of th e historical variability of damaging hail in those 26 states where mos t crop damages occur. However, longer records are needed for various s cientific and business applications, as well as information on potenti al losses in United States' areas without crop insurance. The long-ter m (1901 to present) data on hail-day incidences, as derived from Natio nal Weather Service historical station records, were investigated to d etermine if some form of a hail-day expression related well to the ins urance losses. The areal extent of insured areas of Illinois, Texas. a nd Nebraska experiencing growing season frequencies of hail days match ing or exceeding the once in 10-yr frequencies was found to have the b est relationship with insured loss values. The computed correlation co efficients were +0.97 for Illinois, +0.73 for Texas, and +0.91 for Neb raska. These values appear to be a useful surrogate for 1) estimating pre-1948 loss values, 2) estimating loss values in areas with no insur ance, and 3) further research involving other states with different cr op and hail conditions.