A STOCHASTIC-ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF WASTE REPOSITORIES .2. APPLICATION

An analytical framework for probabilistic safety assessment of geologi cal repositories is applied for a high-level nuclear waste repository. The framework is based on stochastic-analytical solution techniques a nd offers a versatile tool for the analysis of various scenarios, Feat ures, events, and processes for a hypothetical repository, geosphere, and biosphere are considered, Explicit solutions in terms of the expec ted value and variance of the mass flux or cumulative mass flux are de rived for each case considered. The uncertainty pertaining to features and events results in increased time spans of elevated hazard levels with possible exceedance of given regulatory criteria. Mass transfer p rocesses, such as sorption and matrix diffusion, may result in signifi cant reductions of radioactivity fluxes and subsequent doses in the bi osphere.