Js. Goldstein et Jc. Pevehouse, RECIPROCITY, BULLYING, AND INTERNATIONAL-COOPERATION - TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE BOSNIA CONFLICT, The American political science review, 91(3), 1997, pp. 515-529
Although the role of reciprocity in international cooperation is centr
al to neoliberal institutionalism, empirical understanding of the conc
ept remains weak. We analyze strategic response patterns-the use of re
ciprocity or inverse response (bullying)-in the Bosnia conflict from 1
992 to 1995. We construct weekly time series of conflict and cooperati
on among the parties to the Bosnia war, using machine-coded events dat
a. Time-series statistical analysis identities several important patte
rns of strategic response, both reciprocal and inverse. These include
bilateral responses, which are central to the concepts of reciprocity
and evolution of cooperation and triangular responses, which are centr
al to the debates on containment versus accommodation in regional conf
licts. Specifically, Serb forces displayed inverse triangular response
, cooperating toward Bosnia after being punished by NATO. Outside powe
rs displayed triangular reciprocity, increasing hostility toward Serb
forces after Serbian attacks on the Bosnian government.