RECIPROCITY, BULLYING, AND INTERNATIONAL-COOPERATION - TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE BOSNIA CONFLICT

Although the role of reciprocity in international cooperation is centr al to neoliberal institutionalism, empirical understanding of the conc ept remains weak. We analyze strategic response patterns-the use of re ciprocity or inverse response (bullying)-in the Bosnia conflict from 1 992 to 1995. We construct weekly time series of conflict and cooperati on among the parties to the Bosnia war, using machine-coded events dat a. Time-series statistical analysis identities several important patte rns of strategic response, both reciprocal and inverse. These include bilateral responses, which are central to the concepts of reciprocity and evolution of cooperation and triangular responses, which are centr al to the debates on containment versus accommodation in regional conf licts. Specifically, Serb forces displayed inverse triangular response , cooperating toward Bosnia after being punished by NATO. Outside powe rs displayed triangular reciprocity, increasing hostility toward Serb forces after Serbian attacks on the Bosnian government.