ECHOES FROM THE PAST - THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SATISFACTION WITH ECONOMIC-REFORMS AND VOTING-BEHAVIOR IN POLAND

Electorates in several East European countries have thrown their suppo rt behind reconstructed communist parties. Is personal economic hardsh ip driving this phenomenon? We argue that political behavior in postco mmunist societies is fundamentally structured by interpretations of th e transition histories, which were centrally constitutive events. We p ropose a structural equation model in which understandings of the past mediate the relationship between personal circumstances and satisfact ion with economic reforms. We analyze cross-sectional data collected i n Poland immediately after the 1993 parliamentary elections and find, consistent with our hypotheses, that understandings of the past exert as much of an effect on attitudes toward reforms as do personal econom ic assessments. We use multinomial legit to analyze vote choice and fi nd that personal economic circumstances are of little importance. Atti tudes toward economic reforms have a limited effect on voting behavior , but their importance is eclipsed by understandings of the past and o ther factors, such as religion.