PROJECTED FUEL SAVINGS AND EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FROM LIGHT-VEHICLE FUEL-ECONOMY STANDARDS

This study applies a model of motor vehicle stock turnover to estimate the effect of strengthened fuel economy standards on gasoline consump tion, greenhouse gas emissions and hydrocarbon emissions by light-duty vehicles in the United States. Without significant policy change, fue l consumption is projected to grow from a 1990 level of 6.3 million ba rrels per day (Mbd) to 9 Mbd by 2010. Five policy-driven scenarios are analyzed, ranging up to a new vehicle fuel economy improvement rate o f 6% per year. For the 6% /yr scenario, the analysis projects gasoline savings of 2.9 Mbd and emissions reductions of 147 million metric ton s per year (carbon equivalent) of greenhouse gases and 495,000 metric tons per year of evaporative hydrocarbons by 2010. The sensitivity of the projections to various factors is also examined. The most critical assumption is the baseline (i.e., the extent of fuel economy change i n the absence of stronger standards). Other factors examined, such as growth in vehicle miles of travel (VMT), VMT rebound, credits toward r egulatory compliance, rollbacks of standards, upper and lower bounds o n a percentage increase standard, possible vehicle market shifts and f uel economy shortfall, were found to have smaller effects. Fuel econom y standards are projected to be a reliable mechanism for controlling f uture gasoline consumption and associated pollution emissions in the U nited States.