NUCLEAR WASTE AND FUTURE SOCIETIES - A LOOK INTO THE DEEP FUTURE

Inadvertent human intrusion is thought to be a significant, if not the most significant, threat to nuclear waste held in repositories. As pa rt of the effort to access the safety of the first United States repos itory, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant near Carlsbad, New Mexico, four interdisciplinary teams of experts were brought together to provide i nsights into the modes and likelihoods of such intrusions as far as 10 ,000 years in the future. A formal expert elicitation process was used in obtaining their judgments. The teams provided scenarios that, alth ough formed using different approaches, reflected several central them es. These themes are the uncertainty about the need for resource explo ration in the future, the rate at which technology develops or decline s in future, the likely failure of government control of radioactive w aste sites, and the preservation and potential loss of memory about nu clear waste. Identifying possible futures enhances the ability to cons truct a repository that will be robust against many different potentia l threats. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.