SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF THE FUTURE OF CLINICAL PHARMACY

The role of clinical pharmacy in the health care system is changing ra pidly. This change is almost universal among different countries and i s related to developments in medical technology, health economics, inf ormatics, socio-economic status, and professional relations. Transitio ns to new systems of clinical pharmacy are difficult to anticipate. Ev en with well defined targets, it remains uncertain what the future of clinical pharmacy will bring us. The construction of plausible scenari os may help us better in preparing for the 'new world' ahead. At the a nnual congresses of ESCP in Prague 1995 (24th) and Lisbon 1996 (25th), a number of scenario analysis workshops with respect to the future of clinical pharmacy were organized. This paper gives a report of the re sults of these scenario sessions and reflects on the implications for future policy making. After we identified the driving forces behind th e future of clinical pharmacy, various sets of assumptions were made a nd from them scenarios were constructed which are plausible: they 'cou ld' happen. This analysis provided a logical framework in which we ult imately depicted three alternating stories of the future of clinical p harmacy, named 'CLERK', 'CONTROLLER' and 'CARE MANAGER'. These scenari os are intended to help clinical pharmasists to break free of familiar mental maps and to stimulate creative thinking on the future.