R. Roosendaal et al., HELICOBACTER-PYLORI AND THE BIRTH COHORT EFFECT - EVIDENCE OF A CONTINUOUS DECREASE OF INFECTION-RATES IN CHILDHOOD, The American journal of gastroenterology, 92(9), 1997, pp. 1480-1482
Objective: To investigate whether the decrease in rate of Helicobacter
pylori infection in subsequent birth cohorts has continued during the
last decades, Methods: Determination by ELISA of IgG H. pylori antibo
dies in 314 serum samples from Dutch children (age 6-8 yr, n = 154) an
d young adolescents (age 12-15 yr, n = 160), collected in 1978 and 199
3. Results: The prevalence of H. pylori declined from 19% to 9% at age
6-8 yr and from 23% to 11% at age 12-15 yr, For the whole study popul
ation, a decline from 21% to 10% (p = 0.01) was observed between 1978
and 1993. On the basis of these data and an incidence of infection wit
h H. pylori of 0.3% per year during the same period, a model for both
past and future prevalence rates of H. pylori in the Dutch population
was calculated, The outcome demonstrates a decrease from more than 50%
around World War II to less than 20% for the whole population around
year 2040. Conclusions: H. pylori infection rates in childhood have co
ntinued to decline until recent decades, demonstrating a persistent bi
rth cohort effect, This decline will result in a very low prevalence o
f H. pylori infection in the Dutch population during the next decades,
becoming even lower as the observed decline in children and young ado
lescents continues.