SOCIOECONOMIC AND ETHNIC DETERMINANTS OF AGE GRADE DISTORTION IN BOLIVIAN AND GUATEMALAN PRIMARY-SCHOOLS

In this paper, after reviewing the literature on school progress - par ticularly age-grade distortion (over-age) and grade repetition - in de veloping countries, a series of factors that relate to age-grade disto rtion are examined using household survey data from Bolivia and Guatem ala. A model is developed to estimate the incidence and determinants o f age-grade distortion. Multivariate logistic regression analysis is u sed to estimate the determinants of age-grade distortion, the results of which are used to obtain probabilities through simulations. The emp irical analysis reveals that certain populations are more likely to be over-aged in primary school: children from less wealthy households an d children of indigenous origins. This suggests that any targeting act ivities should be directed at the poor and should have an indigenous c omponent, such as bilingual education.