RISK COMPENSATION - IMPLICATIONS FOR SAFETY INTERVENTIONS

Several theories of driving behavior have suggested that individuals w ill react to environmental changes in a compensatory fashion such that riskier behaviors result from perceptions that the environment has be come safer. Specifically, both Peltzman (1975) and Wilde (1982a) have proposed such compensation mechanisms, although Wilde takes a more str ingent approach. Unfortunately, the majority of studies on the topic h ave attempted to test the compensation mechanism using aggregate accid ent data. Studies that have investigated risk compensation at the leve l of the individual have failed to assess subjective risk, a critical variable for the interpretation of the risk associated with specific b ehaviors. It is argued that risk compensation can only operate at the individual level and that previous studies testing the validity of ris k compensation are difficult to interpret due to levels of analysis is sues or unmeasured variables. In the current investigation, two judgme nt/decision making studies were designed to test risk compensation. In dividual level analyses indicated that there was modest support for Pe ltzman's mild interpretation of the risk compensation mechanism, but t hat individuals do not compensate for changes in the environment enoug h to return to their original levels of risk as Wilde has predicted. ( C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.