IMPROVED NCAA BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT MODELING VIA POINT-SPREAD AND TEAM STRENGTH INFORMATION

Several models for estimating the probability that a given team in an NCAA basketball tournament emerges as the regional champion were prese nted by Schwertman, McCready, and Howard. In this article we improve t hese probability models by taking advantage of external information co ncerning the relative strengths of the teams and the point spreads ava ilable at the start of the tournament for the first round games. The r esult is a collection of regional championship probabilities that are specific to a given region and tournament year. The approach is illust rated using data from the 1994 NCAA basketball tournament.