ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF REDUCING DIETARY SATURATED FAT INTAKE ON THE INCIDENCE AND COSTS OF CORONARY HEART-DISEASE IN THE UNITED-STATES

Objectives To estimate the effects of reducing dietary saturated fat i ntake on the incidence and economic costs of coronary heart disease (C HD) in the United States. Design Modeling techniques and data from sec ondary sources, including the Framingham Heart Study and the second an d third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, were used t o estimate the effects on CHD incidence and associated costs ofreducin g dietary saturated fat intake as a percent of total energy by one to three percentage points. Subjects Persons aged 35 to 69 years who have total cholesterol levels of 5.17 mmol/L or higher and are currently f ree of CHD. Results Approximately 3 million first-time coronary events are estimated to occur over a 10-year period among persons with total cholesterol levels exceeding 5.17 mmol/L. Reducing saturated fat inta ke by one to three percentage points would reduce CHD incidence by 32, 000 to 99,700 events and yield combined savings in medical expenditure s and lost earnings ranging from $4.1 to $12.7 billion over 10 years ( estimates in 1993 US dollars). Conclusion Population-based interventio ns to encourage Americans to reduce dietary intake of saturated fat ma y prevent tens of thousands of cases of CHD and save billions of dolla rs in related costs.