LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF ACADEMIC-ACHIEVEMENT OF AMERICAN, CHINESE, AND JAPANESE ADOLESCENTS

Representative samples of 729 American, Chinese, and Japanese Ist grad ers were given achievement and cognitive tests. Mothers were interview ed. Ten years later, 475 of the students participated in a follow-up s tudy in which they were interviewed and given achievement tests. Resul ts revealed high stability of achievement relationships within all 3 s ocieties. Measures of early cognitive abilities were consistently rela ted to the families' socioeconomic status and exerted their influence on later achievement either through 1st-grade achievement scores or th rough evaluations made by their mothers. The percentage of variance in achievement scores accounted for by the path models was between 49% a nd 59% at Ist grade and between 38% and 51% at 11th grade. Despite sta tistical differences in mean scores on the achievement tests, the asso ciations between early predictors and later achievement were similar i n the 3 cultural groups, indicating that differences in mean scores ma y not be accompanied by differences in interrelationships.