SUGGESTIONS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION, ANALYSIS AND USE OF DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGIC MODELS FOR THE MODERNIZATION OF MEAT INSPECTION

There is consensus that scientifically validated, quantitative assessm ents of actual public health risks are a prerequisite for ant sound mo dernization of current meat inspection procedures. This article outlin es how such analyses could be conducted. Approaches that rely heavily upon extrapolations from theoretical dose-effect relationships are ina dequate for the assessment of microbiological health risks associated with the production and consumption of meat. The use of highly structu red and very elaborate descriptive epidemiological models covering the entire period from stable to table can be considered a promising solu tion. Health risks can be quantified by means of incidence rates and t he influence of risk factors by means of odds ratios and (population) attributable fractions. A great advantage is that when it is. not poss ible to quantify risks exactly, the descriptive models are detailed en ough to be used in a hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP)-li ke approach and for writing validated codes of good manufacturing prac tice (GMP). There are, however, several conditions which have to be me t before risk assessment can become the foundation of safety assurance s for meat, such as active legislative support and the setting up of m onitoring systems for zoonoses and other health hazards in animals and humans.