CONSISTENCY AND ACCURACY IN DECISION AIDS - EXPERIMENTS WITH 4 MULTIATTRIBUTE SYSTEMS

There have been a number of multiattribute decision aids developed to aid selection problems. Multiattribute value theory and the analytic h ierarchy process are two commonly used techniques. Different systems c an result in radically different conclusions if they inaccurately and inconsistently reflect the preference structure of decision makers, or if they are based on inappropriate theoretical models. This study exa mines the impact of the underlying theoretical model, the method in wh ich preference information is elicited, and the structure of alternati ves as influences ore the results from using various decision aids. It was found that two systems based on the multiattribute value theory m odel were just as diverse in their conclusions as were results between AHP and the multiattribute value theory models. Therefore, accuracy o f information reflecting decision maker preference is an important con sideration. Feedback capable of assuring the decision maker that infor mation provided is consistent is a necessary feature required of decis ion aids applied to selection problems. The study also found that the way in which information is elicited influenced the result more than d id the underlying model. Exact numerical data for complex concepts suc h as attribute importance and alternative performance on attributes is not necessary, and elicitation procedures that are more natural for t he user are likely to be more accurate.