LOGISTICAL RESTRUCTURING AND ROAD FREIGHT TRAFFIC GROWTH - AN EMPIRICAL-ASSESSMENT

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the clos e correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been r ooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traf fic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the produ ction, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second , by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirement s of 88 large British-based manufacturers. The analysis of secondary d ata shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key param eters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and cons ignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parame ters.The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry tra ffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operat ing at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of log istical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of p roduct flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tighteni ng customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipat e that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sa les and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their like ly reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight mo vement.