Conventional measures of reliability cannot easily be applied to Natio
nal Curriculum assessment. There is a need to develop methods which te
ll us how reliably pupils are allocated to Levels within each attainme
nt target. The situation is complicated by the variety of different me
thods used to award Levels based on marks obtained or performance on S
tatements of Attainment. Statistical models can be used to develop gra
phical displays of the uncertainty in Level assigned against pupil pot
ential attainment, and study of these graphs gives important insights
into the functioning of National Curriculum assessment.