A THEORY OF COLLECTIVE INDUCTION

Collective induction is the cooperative search for descriptive, predic tive, and explanatory generalizations, rules, and principles. We prese nt a social combination theory of collective induction in the form of eight postulates. The theory proposes that collective induction entail s an orderly social combination process of resolution of disagreement among group members by voting, turntaking, demonstration, and formatio n of emergent hypotheses, rather than any of these four processes alon e. Three predictions were derived from the theory and supported for fo ur-person groups on rule induction problems. First, the theory predict ed the obtained group hypotheses better than each of the other four pr ocesses alone. Second, if a correct hypothesis was proposed by at leas t one group member on some trial there was a high probability (.82) of a correct final group hypothesis. Third, if a correct hypothesis was not proposed by at least one group member on some trial there was a ve ry high probability (.98) of an incorrect final group hypothesis. Disc ussion considers support for the theory, cognition as collaboration, a nd boundary conditions. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc.