A REVERSE OUTCOME BIAS - THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE REFERENCE POINTS ON THE EVALUATION OF OUTCOMES AND DECISIONS

Two experiments examined the influence of multiple reference points on the evaluation of outcomes and decisions that lead to those outcomes. Norm theory is applied as a conceptual framework for understanding th e conditions under which alternative norms may be evoked by the decisi on context and how they are subsequently used as reference points in t he evaluation process. Of primary interest, in these studies, was how an outcome is evaluated when two reference points, the status quo and an evoked alternative, provide conflicting information about the ''goo dness'' of the outcome (the outcome is good from the perspective of on e reference point and bad from the perspective of the other). A gambli ng paradigm, based on regret theory, is employed to address these ques tions. We find that an alternative outcome is more likely to be evoked as a reference point when: (1) it is certain that another choice woul d have led to the alternative outcome; (2) a social comparison other r eceives the alternative outcome; and (3) the alternative otucome is in a different evaluative domain than the outcome received (i.e., is neg ative when the outcome received is positive). When these conditions ho ld, and the alternative outcome is used as a reference point for evalu ation, the evaluations which result are quite counterintuitive: winner s are rated as more regretful over their choices than losers are consi dered to be less satisfied with their outcomes than losers, and are ra ted as having made poorer quality decision than losers, who made the s ame choice! The latter finding represents a complete reversal of the o utcome bias often observed in judgments of decisions made under uncert ainty. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc.