WE KNEW IT ALL ALONG - HINDSIGHT BIAS IN GROUPS

Two studies investigated the occurrence of hindsight distortion in gro ups as compared to individuals. Competing predictions were derived fro m four theoretical positions: Memory impairment, response bias, self-p resentation, and group polarization. In Experiment 1, small groups vs individuals made hypothetical predictions with or without outcome info rmation. Both individuals and groups were found to distort their predi ctions in the direction of the alleged outcome. Experiment 2 employed a memory design in which individuals vs groups made a series of predic tions for which they subsequently received outcome information which w as either above or below their prediction or for which they received n o outcome information. Subjects had to recall their initial prediction . Results indicated that (a) hindsight bias was slightly attenuated in groups compared to individuals, (b) groups were more likely to recall their original predictions correctly than individuals, (c) this recal l advantage of groups disappeared when time taken to make the initial prediction was held constant, and (d) outcome information affected hin dsight bias but not hit rates. Results were interpreted as supporting the response bias perspective. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc.