A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS OF SCHOOL IMPROVEMENT - CHANGES IN SCHOOLS PERFORMANCE OVER TIME

The improvement of schools takes place over extended periods of time. Consequently longitudinal studies which track successive cohorts of pu pils through their schooling are required if estimates of the extent o f improvement are to be established. To date, hardly any studies have collected the necessary data. Those studies which have had appropriate data have tended to emphasise the extent of stability of schools' eff ectiveness over time rather than the extent of any changes. A shift in conceptual framework is called for if improvements in schools' effect iveness are to be the central focus of concern. The study is based on three successive cohorts of pupils passing through some 30 English sec ondary schools. It uses examination results as the outcome measure and includes a prior attainment measure amongst the variables used to con trol for differences between schools' intakes. A multi-level strategy for conceptualising and modelling data on schools' changes in performa nce over time is offered. In common with earlier studies the research shows that there is a good deal of stability in schools' effectiveness from year-to-year; only a small proportion of the schools in the stud y (between a fifth and a quarter) were improving or deteriorating in t erms of their effectiveness. A particularly striking finding of the re search was that whilst several schools improved in effectiveness only one initially 'ineffective' school did so consistently. The implicatio ns of the study for future research on school improvement are discusse d.