UTILITY ANALYSIS FOR THE PROBATIONARY SELECTION DECISION TO OBTAIN A FIXED QUOTA OF SUCCESSFUL SELECTEES

This article presents the extension of the one-cohort probationary sel ection (OCPS) framework (De Corte, 1994) to a multiple cohort model an d shows how the extension can be applied to estimate the utility of pr obationary selection with replacement (PSWR) when a fixed quota of suc cessfully performing selectees is required. Next, formulas to compute the net present value of the OCPS and the PSWR approach to the selecti on of a fixed quota of successful employees are derived. The equations indicate that the latter approach will usually lead to a higher utili ty, but not necessarily to a higher net present value of the predictor selected workforce. This finding, which is corroborated by the result s of an example application, is of immediate practical relevance becau se it justifies the probationary selection with replacement practice t hat is adopted in many West European countries. Finally, the example r esults suggest also that the traditional Brogden-Cronbach-Gleser frame work generally overestimates the incremental utility of using a predic tor when the objective is to select a fixed quota of successful select ees. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.