LINKING MICROBIOLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR FOODS WITH QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

The current annual risk of acquiring a foodborne disease in the United States is estimated at 2.7 X 10(-2). The risk of associated death is estimated at 3.7 X 10(-5). These represent a health care burden >$3 bi llion. Using a risk assessment model one can identify levels of microb ial contamination which may be unacceptable in foods and appropriate c ontrols needed to reduce these levels. Salmonella bacteria continue to represent a large percentage of the identifiable infections. A model developed from human dose-response studies predicts the probability of infection for Salmonella at 7.5 X 10(-3) with exposure to a single CF U of the organism. Risks of severity (hospitalization), mortality, rea ctive arthritides, and mortality in the elderly are estimated at 3.1 X 10(-4), 7.5 X 10(-6), 1.7 X 10(-5), and 2.8 X 10(-4). Exposure to mic robial contaminants needs to be evaluated on a single meal basis. For chicken, exposure may range from a single drum stick (38g) to a half b roiler (176g) but averages around 80g. For beef between 51 and 85g may be consumed during a single meal. Therefore, methods for monitoring m ust be able to detect at least I CFU/80g. Risks for some pathogenic E. coli are estimated at 1,000 to 10,000 less than Salmonella. Therefore , use of coliforms as indicators needs to be assessed and related to o ccurrence and survival and regrowth potential of the enteric bacteria of greater public health concern. Because, 20% of the U.S. population may be considered to be in a special population category and at an inc reased risk of severe outcomes, no more than 20% failure of a standard should be acceptable.